http://www.sheepcanada.com/sheep-canada-spring-2016/
So what is behind our changing
weather patterns? Climate change has been linked to the rise in “greenhouse gasses” carbon dioxide (CO2),
nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4), trapping the heat
from the sun. These gasses are linked to
the use of fossil fuels and human activities, such as agriculture. Besides the natural atmospheric conditions
that help keep our planet comfortable, there is good scientific agreement that
human activities have tipped the scale towards increasing levels of greenhouse gasses and their effects on the warming of the
earth.
To limit the global increase in warming and
the ongoing impacts to agriculture requires a global effort. Canada intends to reduce emissions across the
economy by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.
“Climate-friendly” ranching and farming could help in this effort by
reducing, removing or replacing greenhouse (GHG) emissions. To take it a step further, farming could be “climate-smart”
by improving production efficiencies and profitability, while at the same time
adapting to climate change and reducing GHG.
Where do the agricultural GHG
emissions come from? Carbon dioxide can
come from on-farm energy and machinery use, intensive tillage and
overgrazing. Methane primarily comes
from the digestive processes of ruminants (enteric fermentation), as well as
manure storage. Nitrous oxide can come
from fertilizers, manure applications to soil, nitrogen-fixing crops, and
waterlogged soils. These gases are found
naturally in the atmosphere, but their levels rise significantly with human
activities such as agriculture. Carbon
dioxide is the predominant greenhouse gas, but methane and nitrous oxide are
more potent, at 25 and 298 times (respectively) the global warming potential of
carbon dioxide.
What can we expect to happen? Our
northern latitude will give us some advantages over warmer regions. There are indications that up until 2060,
Canadian prairie grazing capacity will remain productive, with an increase in
warm-season grasses. Earlier seeding dates, possibly improved soil moisture
levels, warmer summers and earlier spring warming are predicted in most
regions. Although growing seasons will
be extended, the hotter summers will shorten the season for cool season crops
and grasses. Extremes such as heat
waves are expected to decrease productivity as evapotranspiration increases and
soils become increasingly dry. The possibility of less snow, receding lakes,
lower stream flows and retreating glaciers will have their effects.
Increased CO2 levels
could result in more plant growth, but could also negatively impact plant
distribution and type, forage quality and quantity. Rising CO2 levels could favour
weed growth and the general warming trend could expand the range of weeds,
forbs and invasive species.
Severe droughts are expected for
many of the ranching ecoregions. Forest
fires are expected to increase with increased temperatures, summer droughts and
insect infestations.
Coastal areas are likely to
experience wetter winters, and with the warmer weather we will probably see
greater problems with parasites.
Besides changes to growing
conditions and crops, livestock directly impacted by temperature extremes and
heat stress can have reduced appetites, impaired reproduction, increases in
stress hormones, decreases in thyroid hormones, water deprivation, nutrient
imbalances and nutrient deficiencies.
Some of these effects arise from seeking shade during the heat of the
day which reduces grazing time, and having insufficient water of quantity or
quality necessary. These changes reduce
productivity and increase morbidity and mortality of livestock.
Increased summer temperatures can also
influence meat quality of livestock, with dehydration, weight loss, altered
muscle metabolism and stress, especially during transport and handling to the
abattoir or auction mart.
Diseases such as Anthrax,
haemonchosis, fascioliasis and Bluetongue are influenced by climate through
changes in their range of distribution, timing of outbreaks or intensity of
outbreaks.
So what can we do? Adaptation to
climate change can be short-term in reaction to observed changes, and long-term
by planning for anticipated changes in climate.
Each farm will need to determine its own vulnerabilities and
opportunities.
Adaptation measures can include
securing and enhancing water supplies, installing drainage and irrigation,
diversifying the farm, altering planting and harvest dates or breeding and
lambing times, improving livestock shelters and infrastructure.
Mitigation refers to efforts to reduce
the net amount of heat trapping greenhouse gases (GHG) released into the
atmosphere. Mitigation strategies are
frequently linked to adaptive strategies i.e. planting trees for shade and
shelterbelts for the comfort of the livestock, also sequesters carbon and
reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Strategies
include:
·
Improving
whole-farm productivity and resource efficiency
·
Maintaining
optimal animal health and productivity
·
Sequestering
carbon in trees, grass and soils
·
Minimizing
leakages of GHG emissions through efficient and minimal fertilizer and manure
applications and using nutrient management planning
·
Reducing
soil disturbances, tillage, summer fallow and overgrazing
·
Exploring
carbon-replacing renewable energy technologies (wind, water, solar, biofuels)
To help with mitigation,
Agriculture and Agrifood Canada has produced a whole-farm modelling program
that estimates greenhouse gas emissions for farmers at no cost. The “Holos” program allows the producer to
test different farm scenarios to aid in reducing GHG emissions and it is
continually being updated.
Each operation should conduct a
climate audit. The climate audit
identifies each climate trend (precipitation, temperature, extremes) and
determines the impact of each trend on farm inputs, animal production, logistics
and farm exports. Another useful
activity would be to conduct an energy-use audit which could reduce energy use,
and CO2 emissions. An energy
audit combined with a climate audit may reveal opportunities for replacement of
greenhouse gas emissions with renewable energy resources, such as wind, solar,
micro-hydro or biofuel production. This
could provide a cost savings, while also providing a new income stream through
the sale of surplus energy and mitigating climate change.
Producers should have an emergency
drought plan. This can include improving
forage resources, modifying grazing strategy, improving water resources and/or
diversifying. If climate conditions lead
to reduced forage resources over extended times, de-stocking might be
necessary.
Pasture management strategies can
also improve feed efficiency and reduce nitrous oxide and methane emissions by the
incorporation of digestible grass and legume mixes. The legumes fix nitrogen from the atmosphere,
increasing crude protein of the grass mix and replacing some or all of the
nitrogen requirement for grass growth.
This reduces the amount of fertilizer required, avoiding some greenhouse
gas emissions. Extended grazing seasons
due to climate change, coupled with grazing systems like management intensive grazing
that manage the grass and soil first, could provide some opportunities for
improvements to productivity. This could
result in a lower requirement for stored winter feed, but unpredictability
would require planning for the worst case scenario, like extended droughts or
crop failures.
The number of lambs reared per ewe,
lamb growth rates, percentage of bred ewes, and level of nutrition are all
linked to improved resource efficiency (and reduced emissions) and increased
productivity. Flock health management, good biosecurity measures and disease
surveillance are especially important with climate change, based on the
northern migration of disease vectors and the adaptability of disease-causing
organisms. Healthy stock is more
productive and more feed efficient.
Managing water resources is
important due to the increased possibility of elevated temperatures heat waves
during the growing season, increasing water demand while impacting supply. Both quantity and quality of water are
important for flock health and welfare.
Precipitation may be reduced in the growing season, critical for pasture
and rangelands that are rain fed and not irrigated and increasing the incidence
of droughts. An adaptive strategy to
limited water resources may be to reduce stocking density, for herd health and
welfare and to reduce overgrazing and soil erosion.
If sufficient feed has been
stockpiled, and water resources are adequate for livestock needs, one strategy
may be to establish “drought pens or paddocks”, supplementing with grain if
possible. This can be done through early
weaning of lambs, feedlot feeding them until market size. Adult stock may be fed separately to avoid
overgrazing. Australians often implement
this strategy, and I found it to be very effective last summer.
Canada has the advantage of having a
climate known for its cold, ice and snow.
For some, a bit of warming would be a welcome change and give us more of
an advantage globally. At this point,
the level of uncertainty and the projected extreme weather events for the
future make it hard to be totally confident in that view. Perhaps “hope for the best and plan for worst”
might be some good advice for the future.
Climate
trends
|
Farm
inputs
|
Animal
production
|
Logistics
|
Exports
|
PRECIPITATION
More precipitation in winter months,
Drier in summer
|
Hay crop would be affected unless
there is irrigation , perhaps grain also since it is usually grown without
irrigation in prairies; higher prices, may need to plant different crops
|
Production may be affected if there
isn’t shelter for winter rain or summer sun, warm rain can exacerbate
parasite problems in pasture systems, foot problems
|
May not get on field in spring early
enough if still wet, may have trouble harvesting if weather is unstable, mud
and rain makes it difficult to handle livestock, transport. Drought can impact grazing operations,
reduce carrying capacity of the land
|
May experience price crash if animals
are shipped at same time to save feed, price may also rise in long drought
with less supply, but costs will be higher too
|
TEMPERATURE
Increasing temperatures year round, especially hotter in
summer months, warm winter
|
Add to reduced crop yield in
non-irrigated areas, may need to plant different crops
Higher prices
|
Heat stress impacting reproduction,
feed intake, growth and production,
insect and parasites may over-winter and no longer have winter-kill
effect, could have a hot summer kill effect on parasites (positive), insects carrying disease could move north
|
Hot weather can’t ship livestock, may
need to delay breeding later if too hot,
may need to feed animals if grass dries up and to prevent overgrazing,
may need to ship livestock to save grass and hay for rest of year, hard to
plan, shipping planned in advance but animals might not be ready or it may be
too hot to ship
|
Hard to ship at peak of the market
sometimes if there are heat waves, may
not sell as much hay if saving for own stock
|
EXTREMES
More heat waves in summer, winter storms with wind and
rain, perhaps heavy snow storms.
|
Higher feed costs
Electrical disruptions, power outages,
shelter requirement for livestock might be adjusted, generators needed
|
Less production in both low and high
extremes, very hard on farmers and staff to work in extreme weather events
|
Stressful on stock, farmers and
employees. Hard to plan. Focus on preparation for the worst,
|
Hard to predict best time to sell in
advance or how to time the market
|
Resources:
1.
Australian
Wool Innovation (2013) Managing sheep in drought lots: a best practice guide https://www.wool.com/globalassets/start/on-farm-research-and-development/sheep-health-welfare-and-productivity/sheep-nutrition/awi-drought-resources/gd0458_managing-sheep-in-droughtlots.pdf